Forces from the Southern Transitional Council (STC) have reportedly seized control of Yemen’s eastern governorates of Hadhramaut and al Mahrah, displacing elements of the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG). The move, backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), has drawn sharp opposition from Saudi Arabia and Oman, further fracturing the anti-Houthi coalition.
We reached out to the Southern Transitional Council and the Yemeni Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Hadhramaut is Yemen’s largest governorate and is critical to the national budget due to its oil production and export potential. The region had remained a pocket of relative stability since the civil war began in 2015; its fall to separatist forces threatens to expand active warfare to the borders of Oman and Saudi Arabia and may trigger a total collapse of the Yemeni Riyal.
What To Know
The STC offensive, which culminated in the first week of December, marks a shift from political discourse to military force in the eastern interior. The separatists now control the oil-producing regions of both Shabwa and Hadhramaut, reportedly using control of oil fields to influence electricity supplies in Aden. In response, Saudi Arabia has massed forces on its border and continues to support the National Shield Force, a unit under the direct control of IRG President Rashad al-Alimi.
The conflict highlights a deepening rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. While both are members of the Saudi-led coalition, they now back opposing factions within the IRG’s executive leadership. Analysts suggest the timing of the escalation may be linked to broader regional competition, including conflicting interests in the Red Sea and Sudan’s civil war.
Caveat: Internal documents and field reports do not establish that the Hadhrami population supports the STC takeover; many local tribal forces, such as the Hadhramaut Protection Forces, remain aligned with Saudi-backed pro-unity elements. Furthermore, the STC has not yet issued a formal declaration of statehood, despite flying the flag of the former People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY).
What People Are Saying
Helen Lackner, Author and Yemen Analyst, said: “The STC is flying the flag of the socialist PDRY, while totally rejecting any form of socialism… it has brought warfare and instability to the only parts of Yemen that had previously escaped open conflict.”
Rashad al-Alimi, President of the Presidential Leadership Council, during meetings in Riyadh, called for a “return to stability and support for the country’s territorial integrity.”
Amr al-Bidh, STC Official, reportedly accused Hadhrami critics of the offensive of being “terrorists and Houthi supporters.”
António Guterres, UN Secretary-General,, appealed to all sides to “exercise maximum restraint, deescalate tensions and resolve differences through dialogue.”
What Happens Next
Saudi Arabia is currently weighing the withdrawal of financial support for the IRG, a move that could send the Yemeni currency into “free fall” [source not available]. Diplomatic focus remains on a joint Saudi-Emirati delegation attempting to negotiate the withdrawal of STC forces from the Hadhrami interior in favor of the National Shield Force. The STC is expected to delay any formal declaration of independence to maintain access to international aid.
