A report released by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (SZRU), based on data from the Federal Service for Labour and Employment of the Russian Federation, indicates a significant surge in labor-related grievances across Russia. By early December 2024, the total number of documented complaints reached 70,000, representing a 50% increase compared to the previous year. The most acute spike is observed in wage payment delays, with over 26,000 formal cases recorded—a 60% year-on-year rise. These figures, corroborated by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine and reported via Ukrainska Pravda, suggest that the Russian labor market is experiencing its most severe liquidity crisis since August 2020.

The quantitative indicators provided by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine and the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) detail the specific dimensions of the current economic contraction:

• Wage Arrears: Total unpaid wages reached 2.2 billion roubles (approximately US$27 million) by the end of October, an 11% increase within a single month. This figure has tripled relative to the same period in 2024.
• Labor Violations: Beyond wage delays, complaints regarding unlawful dismissals have risen by 33%.
• Corporate Profitability: Net corporate profits for the first three quarters of 2025 have declined by 7.7%, reducing the capital reserves available for payroll obligations.
• Real Estate Instability: Unpaid installments for new housing reached 1.5 trillion roubles (US$18.6 billion) as of December 1, affecting 17% of all active housing contracts.
• Defense Spending: The Russian Federation is projected to spend 11.1 trillion roubles (US$138 billion) on military operations this year, contributing to a federal budget deficit that the Russian Cabinet of Ministers forecasts will persist until 2042.

Military-Industrial Dominance and the Erosion of Civilian Liquidity

The current trajectory of the Russian economy reflects a stark divergence between headline GDP growth and the financial health of the private sector. Analysis from the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine reveals that two-thirds of Russia’s economic growth this year is derived exclusively from the defense production sector. In the third quarter, 0.4 percentage points of the total 0.6% GDP growth were attributed to “public administration and security provision.”

While the defense industry operates on an intensive three-shift basis, its dominance is effectively cannibalizing the civilian economy. According to data from Rosstat, the defense industry’s contribution to GDP growth has nearly tripled compared to last year. However, this growth is localized within the military-industrial complex, leaving civilian enterprises to face non-payments by counterparties, falling consumer demand, and a critical lack of working capital.

Long-term Deficits and Structural Risks

Expert synthesis of the data suggests that Russia is entering a phase of prolonged economic decline, characterized by “military Keynesianism” that masks underlying structural failures. The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine notes that the reliance on military spending creates an imbalanced economic structure where official growth figures do not translate into social or economic stability for the broader population.

The Russian Cabinet of Ministers has acknowledged the severity of the fiscal outlook by extending deficit forecasts for the next two decades. The immediate risks include a widening credit indebtedness crisis and potential instability within the banking sector as the 1.5 trillion rouble housing debt remains unserviced. Furthermore, the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine reports that public sentiment has reached a 20-year low regarding economic prospects, suggesting that the “mass phenomenon” of wage delays may soon catalyze broader socio-economic volatility.