A new analysis of shipping traffic shows that Venezuela’s oil exports remain very much afloat, even as the United States tightens the screws on sanctioned tankers. Dozens of vessels with a track record of hauling Venezuelan crude are currently moving through the Caribbean, and nearly a dozen of them appear to be loaded with oil from the sanctioned producer.

Sanctioned Tankers Still on the Move

Data from Kpler’s vessel-tracking platform highlight how crowded the sanctioned segment of the market remains. At least 34 tankers with a history of carrying Venezuelan oil are at sea in the Caribbean, and Kpler’s location and cargo data indicate that 12 of those ships are likely filled with Venezuelan crude.

One of those vessels, the tanker Skipper, was intercepted by US forces in the Caribbean last week and directed toward an American port. The seizure underscored the growing risk for shipowners and operators moving Venezuelan barrels in defiance of sanctions.

The analysis landed just after President Donald Trump vowed to impose a “complete and total blockade” on sanctioned tankers shuttling in and out of Venezuela. The US focus, Kpler’s experts note, is on vessels carrying Venezuelan crude under sanction, not on similar ships hauling oil from other countries such as Iran or Russia.

Enforcement Risks and Market Impact

For the crews and companies tied to these ships, the risks are rising. Dimitris Ampatzidis, a senior risk and compliance analyst at Kpler, warns that the president’s rhetoric and policy stance mean these tankers now face heightened scrutiny and the potential for more aggressive enforcement actions by US authorities.

Yet Kpler’s own market research suggests that a blockade on Venezuelan oil is unlikely to trigger a major spike in global crude prices. In a report to clients, the firm argues that the market is effectively two-tiered, with a robust shadow segment that has learned how to route sanctioned barrels around formal restrictions. Even with stepped-up enforcement, the sanctioned side of the trade remains crowded.

Recent trading days bear that out. Oil prices rallied by nearly 2%, but the move has not fundamentally altered the broader supply-demand picture. Instead, traders appear to be treating the latest sanctions talk as another factor in an already complex global energy landscape rather than a shock large enough to reorder the market.

Who Still Buys Venezuelan Crude?

Venezuela has pumped around 900,000 barrels per day of crude and condensate so far in 2025, roughly 1% of total global supply. Kpler’s flows data show that China is by far the biggest buyer, taking about 76% of Venezuela’s output. The US, by contrast, has imported around 17% of Venezuelan barrels this year-about half the share it took in 2024.

Other notable customers include Cuba, Spain, and Italy, which rely on Venezuelan crude for portions of their refining mix. Kpler expects that if enforcement intensifies, cargoes heading for the US under Chevron’s existing license will likely continue, while China- and Cuba-bound shipments bear more of the disruption.

In practical terms, that means US-bound volumes could remain relatively stable even as sanctioned markets are forced to reshuffle. Kpler’s assessment is that “Venezuelan supply to sanctioned markets would be disrupted, while volumes destined for the US would remain intact, with China- and Cuba-bound cargoes bearing the brunt of the impact.”

Dark Fleets and Data Gaps

Another complication is the rise of opaque shipping practices. Some of the tankers now under scrutiny have a track record of AIS “spoofing,” turning off or manipulating their automatic identification signals to hide their true locations. With transponders dark, these ships have been able to conduct ship-to-ship transfers and other workarounds that make cargo origins harder to trace.

That behavior has helped Venezuela maintain export volumes even under sanctions, but it has also made the fleet more vulnerable to targeted enforcement when data do surface. A recent tracking snapshot shows the routes of 12 sanctioned Venezuelan tankers, highlighting how heavily trafficked regional waters remain despite official restrictions.

A Blockade That May Not Move Prices

The bigger picture is that Venezuela, though symbolically important in US policy debates, is a relatively small player in global supply terms. With output at about 1% of world production, even a strict clampdown on sanctioned tankers would likely be absorbed by adjustments elsewhere. Kpler expects China and Cuba to seek replacement barrels from Russian and Iranian exporters, while US refineries continue to receive Venezuelan crude under narrow licensing frameworks.

That helps explain why the president’s vow to blockade tankers has not delivered a lasting boost to oil prices or reworked underlying fundamentals. The sanctioned trade remains crowded, the shadow fleet is adaptive, and the legal carve-outs for select buyers keep a portion of the flow intact. For now, the biggest impact of the policy shift may be on the tankers themselves-vessels caught between high-paying sanctioned cargoes and the rising risk of seizure on the high seas.