Russia’s income from oil exports fell to $10.97 billion in November, down nearly 25% from the same month last year and marking the weakest level since Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, according to the International Energy Agency.
The decline reflects mounting pressure on a sector central to Russia’s economy, with a combination of weaker prices, falling shipments and intensifying geopolitical risks squeezing Moscow’s primary revenue source.
Export volumes crater
Russia’s combined exports of crude and fuel dropped by about 400,000 barrels per day in November, falling to 6.9 million bpd, the Paris-based IEA reported. The agency noted that buyers were reassessing risks linked to tighter enforcement of U.S. sanctions.
Total seaborne exports through the Black Sea plunged by 42% to 910,000 bpd, weighed down by recent Ukrainian attacks on dark fleet vessels and facilities, the IEA said.
Russian oil output fell to 9.03 million barrels per day in November from 9.24 million bpd in October, roughly 500,000 bpd below Russia’s November production target under the OPEC+ agreement.
Prices slide to three-year low
Lower volumes were accompanied by a sharp fall in prices. Urals crude slid by $8.2 per barrel to $43.52, a drop that weighed heavily on export income, according to the agency’s assessment. The price marked the lowest level since the start of the Ukraine conflict.
The decline in both export volumes and prices dragged revenues to their lowest monthly level since the invasion began, the IEA said.
U.S. sanctions intensify pressure
The pressure has intensified as Washington increased sanctions in October, targeting major producers including Rosneft and Lukoil, moves intended to curb funds flowing to the Kremlin.
The United States has warned several countries that they may face additional tariffs and punitive trade measures if they continue buying Russian oil. Washington recently imposed an additional 25% tariff on imports from India, citing its continued purchases of Russian crude, the Times of India reported.
Ukrainian strikes disrupt infrastructure
Ukraine intensified strikes on Russian refineries over the summer and early autumn, causing domestic petrol prices to spike and prompting some Russian regions to introduce fuel rationing.
The IEA said Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s sanctions-busting “shadow fleet” and marine oil facilities cut almost half of Russia’s November seaborne exports through the Black Sea.
“After weathering significant unplanned refinery outages in November, tightness in refined product markets has eased, but sanctions in 1Q26 will provide fresh challenges,” the IEA said.
Budget strain deepens
The Russian finance ministry reported that oil and gas revenues for the first nine months of the year were down 22% to $88 billion.
A combination of high military spending, entrenched inflation and falling oil income has stretched Moscow’s budget. Russia is expected to post a $50 billion deficit this year, around three percent of GDP, and plans to raise taxes on consumers and businesses next year to narrow the gap.
Regional divergence
While Russia’s output slipped, Kazakhstan moved in the opposite direction. The country’s crude supply rose by 120,000 bpd from October to 1.81 million bpd in November, standing about 330,000 bpd above Kazakhstan’s OPEC+ quota, highlighting uneven compliance across the region.
Market outlook
Global oil supply fell by 610 kb/d in November, extending cumulative declines from September’s record high. OPEC+ accounted for more than three-quarters of the overall drop, driven mainly by sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela.
Despite recent market tightness, the IEA projects global oil supply to grow by 3 mb/d in 2025 and a further 2.4 mb/d in 2026. On the demand front, world oil consumption is expected to rise by 830 kb/d in 2025, supported by improved macroeconomic and trade conditions.
The agency revised its supply growth forecasts downward by 100 kb/d for 2025 and 20 kb/d for 2026, to 106.2 mb/d and 108.6 mb/d respectively.
