Russia recorded its largest territorial gains in Ukraine in 2025 since the first year of the full-scale invasion in 2022, according to an analysis based on battlefield data compiled by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War.
An AFP analysis of the data found that Russian forces captured more than 5,600 square kilometers (2,160 square miles) of Ukrainian territory over the course of 2025—roughly 0.94 percent of the country’s total land area.
Why It Matters
The figures highlight a shift in momentum on the battlefield after years of relatively limited territorial movement, underscoring the sustained pressure Ukrainian forces faced amid continued Russian offensives. While the gains remain far below the vast areas seized by Russia in the early months of 2022, they exceed the total territory Russia captured in 2023 and 2024 combined.
What to Know
The territorial estimates are based on assessments by the Institute for the Study of War, which tracks confirmed areas of control using open-source intelligence, satellite imagery, and reporting from both Ukrainian and Russian sources.
The data includes territory independently verified as being under Russian control, as well as areas claimed by Moscow. According to the analysis, Russia’s largest monthly advance in 2025 occurred in November, when its forces captured approximately 701 square kilometers.
By contrast, Russian advances slowed significantly in December, when territorial gains dropped to around 244 square kilometers—the smallest monthly increase recorded since March.
What People Are Saying
Analysts cited in the AFP report noted that Ukraine faced mounting challenges throughout the year, including sustained Russian bombardment and ground offensives. Ukrainian forces have also struggled with manpower shortages and limited ammunition supplies, factors that contributed to the gradual loss of territory.
Russian officials have continued to frame the advances as evidence of battlefield success, while Kyiv has emphasized the defensive nature of its operations and the ongoing need for military assistance.
What Happens Next
Russia currently occupies just under one-fifth of Ukrainian territory and has demanded that Kyiv withdraw its forces from the eastern Donbas region as a condition for any peace negotiations.
As the war enters another year, analysts expect continued fighting along key фронts, with territorial changes likely to remain incremental unless there is a significant shift in military capacity or external support for either side.
