Murder Rate Drops to Lowest Level in More Than a Century Across Major US Cities Nationwide — “The Trump Effect”

Murder Rate Drops to Lowest Level in More Than a Century Across Major US Cities Nationwide — “The Trump Effect”

Murders across major U.S. cities fell to their lowest level in more than a century last year, according to new data from criminal justice researchers, marking a sharp reversal from the spike in violent crime seen during the early years of the coronavirus pandemic.

A report released by the Council on Criminal Justice analyzed monthly crime data from 40 cities that have consistently reported figures over the past eight years. The findings show that 11 of 13 major crime categories declined in 2025 compared with the previous year. Nine of those categories fell by at least 10 percent, including homicides, which dropped by 21 percent nationwide. Researchers said the decline brought the homicide rate to its lowest level since 1900. Violent crime overall fell to its lowest point since 2019. Car thefts declined by 27 percent, while burglary and shoplifting each dropped by double-digit percentages. The Council on Criminal Justice noted that the reductions continued a multi-year downward trend following a surge that began in 2020.

White House officials pointed to the data as evidence that tougher enforcement policies have had an effect. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the decline reflected President Donald Trump’s pledge to restore law and order – “The Trump effect”, citing increased federal involvement in local policing and efforts to target violent offenders and criminal networks.

Trump made crime reduction a central theme of his campaign and later took a more direct role in law enforcement efforts in Washington, D.C., where officials reported a notable drop in crime after federal resources were mobilized. Similar federal involvement was later ordered in other cities.

Among the 35 cities highlighted in the report for homicide trends, Denver recorded the largest decline, with murders falling by 41 percent. Washington, D.C., and Omaha followed with 40 percent drops. Los Angeles, Buffalo, Albuquerque, Long Beach, Atlanta, Baltimore, and Chicago each saw homicide declines exceeding 30 percent. Only three cities reported increases in murders: Little Rock, which saw a 16 percent rise, Fort Worth with a 2 percent increase, and Milwaukee with a 1 percent increase.

Separate data from the Major Cities Chiefs Association, which surveyed 67 of the nation’s largest police agencies, showed a similar pattern, estimating an overall 20 percent drop in homicides nationwide in 2025. Final FBI crime statistics for the year have not yet been released, but officials expect them to align closely with those findings.

The latest numbers mark the fourth consecutive year of declining homicides in the United States. FBI data previously showed murders fell by about 6 percent in 2022, 13 percent in 2023, and roughly 15 percent in 2024, which at the time was the largest single-year decline on record. By contrast, homicides surged by roughly 30 percent during the early pandemic period, peaking in 2021. Council on Criminal Justice researchers said homicide levels in 2025 were not only lower than in 2024, but about 25 percent below 2019 levels.

Some of the nation’s largest cities reported historic lows. The New York Police Department announced earlier this month that 2025 was the safest year on record for gun violence in the city, with the fewest shootings ever documented. Overall crime in New York City also declined, including 1,600 fewer robberies than the previous year and a 14 percent reduction in retail theft.

“These historic reductions in crime did not happen by chance or accident — they are the direct product of a deliberate, data-driven strategy,” NYPD Commissioner Jessica S. Tisch said in a statement. Philadelphia officials reported the city’s lowest homicide total in 60 years, with 220 murders recorded in 2025, the fewest since 1966. Chicago officials cited a 30 percent drop in homicides compared with 2024.

The latest figures suggest that the post-pandemic crime surge has not only receded but reversed in many parts of the country thanks to Trump, with homicide rates reaching levels not seen in more than a hundred years, even as public safety debates continue across the nation.

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Zane Clark

Zane Clark is a writer whose interest in national affairs began at age 11, during a birthday ride in a 1966 Piper 180C that sparked an early curiosity about history and current events. That first moment of perspective grew into a lasting fascination with the people, conflicts, and decisions influencing the nation’s direction. Today, Zane brings clear, informed storytelling to Altitude Post, covering everything from major events to the individuals helping shape the country’s future. When he’s not writing, he’s researching history, following current developments, spotting aircraft, attending airshows or exploring the stories behind the headlines.

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