A majority of Russian citizens believe the ongoing conflict in Ukraine will conclude in 2026, according to new data released by a state-run polling agency, signaling a potential shift in public expectation as diplomatic conversations surrounding a peace settlement gain momentum.
Why it matters
The release of these figures by the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM) marks a notable departure from previous messaging. In past year-end presentations, state pollsters have focused heavily on societal consolidation around President Vladimir Putin without offering specific timelines for the end of hostilities. The decision to publicize an expectation for the war’s end suggests the Kremlin may be testing public reaction to a potential resolution.
This comes as the war approaches its fourth year and amid intensified diplomatic efforts from Washington, with U.S. President Donald Trump pushing to accelerate negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv.
What to know
During a year-end presentation on Wednesday, VTsIOM Deputy Head Mikhail Mamonov revealed that 55 percent of respondents link their hopes for a successful 2026 to the end of what Russia officially terms its “special military operation.”
According to the state pollster, 70 percent of the 1,600 respondents surveyed viewed 2026 as likely to be more “successful” for Russia than the current year. Mamonov stated that the primary reason for this optimism is the “possible completion of the special military operation and the achievement of the stated objectives, in line with the national interests outlined by the president.”
However, assessing the true level of war fatigue remains complex due to strict state controls on dissent. While VTsIOM reports that 79 percent of respondents trust Putin and 74 percent approve of his foreign policy, independent data suggests a more nuanced reality.
The independent Levada Center, which Russian authorities have designated a “foreign agent,” released separate findings on Dec. 22 indicating that support for continuing the war has dropped to 25 percent—the lowest share since the full-scale invasion began in 2022. Levada researchers found that roughly two-thirds (66 percent) of Russians now believe Moscow should move toward peace talks.
What people are saying
Mamonov attributed the public’s expectation of a 2026 conclusion to several geopolitical factors, including the Russian army’s ongoing offensive, perceived U.S. reluctance to finance Ukraine, and the European Union’s challenges in replacing American military aid.
“The main reason for optimism is the possible completion of the special military operation,” Mamonov said. He added that following the cessation of hostilities, public priorities are expected to shift toward the reintegration of veterans and the reconstruction of Russian-controlled regions.
Conversely, while many respondents in the state survey expressed hope for an end to fighting, they largely expect it to conclude on terms “proclaimed as its goals,” reflecting alignment with the Kremlin’s narrative. Support for continuing the war remains significantly higher among Russians who rely on state television for news.
On the international stage, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated on Dec. 22 that negotiations with the U.S. and European nations were “very close to a real result.” On Wednesday, Zelenskiy called for a meeting with Trump to resolve sensitive issues regarding a future deal, including territorial control.
What happens next
Diplomatic activity is expected to escalate in the coming weeks. The Kremlin confirmed on Wednesday that Putin has been briefed on contacts between his officials and President Trump’s envoys regarding U.S. proposals for a peace deal. Moscow stated it would now formulate its official position.
Putin has recently stipulated that his conditions for peace include Ukraine ceding the roughly 5,000 square km of the Donbas region it still controls and officially renouncing its intention to join NATO. As Washington steps up diplomatic efforts, observers will be watching to see if the Kremlin softens these demands in alignment with the shifting public expectations for a 2026 resolution.
