Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has reportedly prepared an exit strategy to Moscow should nationwide protests escalate and his security forces fail to suppress the unrest, according to a recently revealed intelligence assessment.

Why it matters

The potential flight of Khamenei underscores the deepening instability in Iran, as protests continue across major cities in response to economic hardships and rising inflation. If the Supreme Leader’s authority is compromised, it could create a power vacuum, destabilizing not only domestic governance but also Iran’s regional influence.

What to know

The intelligence report indicates that Khamenei, 86, may leave Tehran with a small group of up to 20 aides and family members if the army and anti-riot forces—comprising the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Basij militia, police, and regular army—defect or refuse orders. According to AP News, Khamenei controls these forces directly but has been largely absent from public view amid the recent demonstrations.

What people are saying

Protesters have voiced frustration over the government’s spending on foreign conflicts instead of domestic needs, chanting slogans like “No to Gaza, no to Lebanon, I’d give my life for Iran only,” as reported by The Guardian. Meanwhile, independent reporting from Times of Israel confirms elements of Khamenei’s escape plan, echoing the Times assessment.

What happens next

Analysts warn that if Khamenei executes the plan, it could trigger further unrest or opportunistic moves from within Iran’s political and military elite. Khamenei has reportedly prepared financial and property arrangements abroad to facilitate a safe exit. Meanwhile, CNA notes that the Supreme Leader continues to frame the protests as threats to national stability, signaling a tense standoff between authorities and demonstrators.