Lithuania declared a nationwide emergency on Tuesday after months of dealing with suspicious balloons from Belarus that have disrupted air traffic and created significant security concerns.
While there wasn’t an immediate crisis triggering the declaration, Lithuanian officials have documented an alarming pattern: at least 599 weather balloons launched from Belarus this year to smuggle cigarettes across the border, along with 197 drone incursions. Just this past week alone, several more balloons crossed into Lithuanian airspace.
The impact has been substantial. Since October, more than 350 flights have faced delays, diversions, or cancellations, affecting approximately 51,000 passengers. Vilnius airport has been forced to shut down for over 60 hours in total, with financial losses surpassing €750,000.
Government response and security measures
Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene announced the emergency order with a clear message: “In countering Belarus’s hybrid attack, we must take the strictest measures and protect the areas most affected by this attack. All relevant institutions are joining forces to put an end to the threat posed by the smuggled balloons.”
The emergency declaration enables tighter border checkpoints and nightly defensive patrols while allowing military and civilian security forces to coordinate more effectively against potential sabotage. Ruginiene emphasized that everyday life for residents shouldn’t be disrupted by the heightened alert status.
Understanding hybrid warfare tactics
What makes this situation particularly concerning is how it fits into a larger pattern of hybrid warfare that Russia and Belarus have been accused of waging against NATO and EU member states. These tactics blend military, cyber, economic, and psychological elements to destabilize adversaries while maintaining plausible deniability. Both Moscow and Minsk have denied orchestrating such deliberate attacks.
The West has been grappling with an escalating wave of [drone intrusions](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/22/world/europe/drone-sightings-airports.html, cyberattacks, and political interference since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. While most of these incidents have been more disruptive than catastrophic, there’s growing concern that a miscalculation could lead to serious casualties or widespread damage.
Charlie Edwards, a hybrid warfare specialist at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told the New York Times that the balloon campaign is designed to “create visible uncertainty and just try and disrupt things,” which “begins to cause public panic.”
Push for coordinated European action
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced plans for additional sanctions targeting Belarus over the balloon incursions. But Lithuania’s interior ministry is pushing for more than just financial penalties-they want a comprehensive response system for hybrid threats.
Edwards advocates for a more proactive approach, suggesting Europol should coordinate investigations across the continent, similar to how NATO tackled terrorism over the past two decades through intelligence-sharing and joint operations. “Then we are more proactive in how we go after them rather than, at the moment, being more passive in terms of our response to the hybrid warfare,” he explained.
European officials have become more vocal in calling out Russia compared to a year ago, employing a naming-and-shaming strategy. Yet demands continue mounting for stronger defenses and harsher consequences.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte acknowledged last week that the alliance addresses hybrid threats but often retaliates covertly. Referring to the Lithuanian balloon situation, he said: “We will react in a way of our own choosing, and they will feel it.”
