China has ample reason to oppose the ramp-up of American military pressure on Venezuela and the recent US interceptions of tankers tied to its oil. The U.S. maneuvers, part of President Donald Trump’s “total and complete blockade” of sanctioned vessels around Venezuela, strike at the economic heart of one of Beijing’s closest Latin American partners—and target an industry that has long benefited China, which in recent months took in roughly 80 percent of Venezuela’s oil exports, analysts say.
However, while Beijing has slammed those interceptions as illegal and assured Caracas of its opposition to “all forms of unilateralism and bullying,” it is also clear that Beijing is primed to use the US aggression to its advantage. Analysts suggest China is playing this as another reason why the US should not be the world’s leading superpower, while simultaneously evaluating how Trump is rolling out his revival of the Monroe Doctrine.
Why It Matters
The White House’s national security strategy released earlier this month includes a revamp of that centuries-old policy, updating what historically was a warning to European colonial powers not to interfere in the Western hemisphere to a Trump-era vision for a “stable” region “free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets.”
This “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine appears to take aim at Beijing’s ties to the region. The strategy has sparked a deluge of analysis in China’s policy circles, where experts are debating whether the US is signaling a withdrawal from its role as a global-spanning power to focus on its own backyard. If true, this could leave more space for Beijing to expand its own influence in Asia and the world.
Furthermore, the economic stakes are high. Last month, crude oil from Venezuela accounted for 5 percent of China’s total imports, according to data analytics firm Kpler.
What to Know
The Trump administration has launched a campaign to oust foreign influence from the region, claiming that the regime of Nicolás Maduro uses oil money to finance “drug terrorism, human trafficking, murder, and kidnapping.” In response to the blockade, the US told the United Nations on Tuesday that it intends to deprive Venezuela’s Maduro of resources, with Chinese representative Sun Lei countering that China “supports all countries in defending their sovereignty and national dignity.”
Regarding the seized assets, President Trump has suggested that he wants to open up US access to Venezuelan land and oil, stating that the US might keep or might sell the oil seized near Venezuela. One vessel intercepted by the US, the unsanctioned Centuriestanker, is owned by a Hong Kong-registered company.
China’s Foreign Ministry has been vocal in its opposition, stating that the serious violation of international law regarding the seizure of ships is unacceptable.
Despite the tension, China recently published its first new policy paper on Latin America and the Caribbean in nearly a decade. Dropping roughly a week after the White House National Security Strategy, China’s agenda laid out dozens of areas in which it proposed boosting collaboration with the region, from aerospace to law enforcement, reiterating its role as a member of the “Global South.”
What People Are Saying
The international reaction from Beijing has been sharp. The state-backed Global Times published an editorial Monday stating that the US’ “escalating actions against Venezuela” have placed it “in opposition to global moral standards.”
Domestic analysis within China has been even more blunt. A research fellow at a government-backed think tank suggested that if the US advanced its maritime operations to a large-scale invasion, it could trigger a “‘second Vietnam War.’”
However, some scholars see a strategic shift. Mei Yang, associate dean of The Chinese University of Hong Kong in Shenzhen, wrote in a recent analysis that Trump’s vision may be for a world divided into “spheres of influence.” This implies the US “is unlikely to interfere excessively in East Asian affairs such as the Taiwan issue and Sino-Japanese relations and instead acknowledges China’s dominance in this region of influence,” Mei wrote.
What Happens Next
China is unlikely to move past rhetoric and flex its military might to back Venezuela or to shore up engagement in Latin America in the face of the US show of force. However, Beijing does not intend to back away from a region where it has unleashed billions in loans for infrastructure.
Instead, Beijing appears to be closely evaluating how the Trump administration’s heightened focus on the Americas may impact its engagement elsewhere. International observers have wondered whether China could draw lessons from the American moves for its own region, particularly regarding Taiwan.
While some Chinese policy thinkers suggest this focus on the Americas is a “temporary strategic retrenchment” by the US, officials in Beijing feel an urgency to gain control of the global narrative, ensuring that even if the US focuses on its backyard, China continues to expand its diplomatic footprint.
