Venezuela’s prolonged collapse is increasingly being described by analysts and international observers not only as a case of authoritarian entrenchment, but as the consolidation of what they allege to be a criminalized system of governance. Once one of Latin America’s wealthiest democracies, the country has experienced an economic, institutional, and humanitarian breakdown that experts say is unprecedented outside of wartime.

While government officials have attributed Venezuela’s crisis primarily to U.S. and international sanctions, economists and political analysts argue that the roots of the collapse predate most external restrictions and stem from policies implemented under the political movement known as Chavismo, launched by Hugo Chávez in 1999 and continued under President Nicolás Maduro. According to these analysts, years of political interference, corruption, and the militarization of civilian institutions dismantled checks and balances and eroded the rule of law.

Why it matters

The crisis has evolved from a domestic political dispute into a regional and international concern. Venezuela’s GDP per capita fell by more than 80 percent between 2013 and 2021, according to data from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook and the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, marking one of the sharpest economic contractions recorded in modern history outside of armed conflict.

The collapse of the state oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), has been central to that decline. Court filings and investigative reporting by U.S. authorities and international watchdogs have documented extensive corruption networks involving PDVSA. Estimates cited in cases brought by the U.S. Department of Justice and investigations by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project suggest that more than $23 billion was diverted through opaque oil trading schemes between 2010 and 2020.

As economic conditions deteriorated, millions of Venezuelans fled the country. United Nations agencies estimate that more than 9 million people have left Venezuela over the past decade, creating one of the world’s largest displacement crises, according to data from the R4V platform coordinated by UNHCR and IOM and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.

What to know

Concerns over the nature of state power intensified following Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election. The country’s National Electoral Council declared Maduro the winner with 51.2 percent of the vote, according to official results published by the National Electoral Council (CNE). Opposition groups, however, cited parallel vote counts covering more than 80 percent of polling stations indicating that opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia won by a wide margin.

Protests erupted after the results were announced. Human rights organizations including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International reported mass arrests, excessive use of force, and intimidation by security forces and pro-government armed groups. Analysts say these events marked a shift away from what had previously been described as competitive authoritarianism toward a system in which political power is maintained primarily through coercion.

Political scientists and corruption investigators argue that key institutions — including the Supreme Court, the electoral authority, and senior military leadership — now operate with limited independence. Corruption, they say, has become structural rather than incidental, with illicit activities such as gold trafficking, narcotics smuggling, fuel diversion, and money laundering alleged to play a role in sustaining elite networks.

What people are saying

Investigative reporting and commentary have highlighted allegations involving senior military figures commonly referred to as the “Cartel of the Suns.” U.S. authorities have accused current and former Venezuelan officials of involvement in drug trafficking and corruption, allegations outlined in indictments and sanctions issued by the U.S. Department of Justice and the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. The Venezuelan government has repeatedly denied the accusations.

Observers also point to Venezuela’s alliances with Russia, Iran, and China as a factor in the government’s ability to withstand international pressure. Analysts say these partnerships have provided financial support, energy cooperation, and diplomatic backing, while facilitating sanctions evasion.

Particular attention has focused on Venezuela’s relationship with Iran. Since 2007, the two countries have signed more than 270 bilateral agreements. Investigative reporting, including a
Reuters report on Iran–Venezuela cooperation under sanctions, has documented deepening ties across energy, trade, and financial sectors, raising concerns among Western officials that some arrangements may enable opaque financial transactions. Those risks have been highlighted in advisories from the U.S. Treasury Department
.

Human rights advocates say the broader climate of repression has affected minority communities, including Venezuela’s Jewish population. Monitoring groups have documented synagogue attacks, surveillance of community institutions, and inflammatory rhetoric by senior officials, trends reflected in reporting by international organizations such as the Anti-Defamation League report on anti-Semitic incident in Venezuela.

A recent commentary published in the Jerusalem Post’s opinion section described Chavismo as “the greatest catastrophe in Venezuela’s republican history,” arguing that it merged the brutality of past dictatorships with organized crime structures. The Venezuelan government has dismissed such characterizations as politically motivated.

What happens next

International pressure is mounting over what policymakers increasingly describe as a security challenge rather than solely a humanitarian crisis. Sanctions and security assessments by Western governments have raised concerns about Hezbollah-linked networks operating in parts of Latin America, allegations reflected in designations published on the OFAC Specially Designated Nationals list.

Analysts argue that restoring democratic governance in Venezuela could help stabilize regional migration flows, reduce illicit financial activity, and reintroduce a major energy producer into global markets. For now, however, they warn that the country’s trajectory points toward deeper entrenchment unless sustained international engagement alters the political calculus in Caracas.

As Venezuelans continue to challenge the legitimacy of their political system, foreign governments face a choice: whether to treat the crisis as an internal authoritarian dispute, or as analysts increasingly warn, as an alleged case of criminalized state power with international consequences.