For the first time in at least 50 years, the United States experienced negative net migration in 2025, according to a new analysis by leading economists at the Brookings Institution. The finding marks a major demographic shift, driven by both a sharp reduction in entries and heightened enforcement actions, and carries significant implications for the U.S. economy and labor force.
What the Brookings Report Shows
The Brookings report, Macroeconomic Implications of Immigration Flows in 2025 and 2026: January 2026 Update, estimates that net migration — the difference between the number of people entering and leaving the country — fell into negative territory last year. Researchers estimate net migration for 2025 ranging between –295,000 and –10,000, a giant reversal from previous years.
According to the study’s authors, this would be the first calendar year in over half a century in which more people left the United States than entered.
Causes of the Decline
Lower Entries and Visa Reductions
A central factor in the decline was a significant drop in new entries to the United States, particularly through humanitarian and temporary visa pathways. The Brookings economists note that policy changes affecting asylum, refugee admissions, and other legal routes played a critical role in reducing inflows.
Enforcement and Removals
Enforcement activity also contributed to the negative net migration figure. The report estimates that between 310,000 and 315,000 people were removed in 2025, a count notably lower than figures cited by the Department of Homeland Security but still significant.
Researchers further observed that, unlike in 2024 when many removals were initiated by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), a larger share of 2025 removals were initiated by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officials operating within the interior of the country.
Policy Context and Ongoing Trends
The report ties these demographic changes to broader policy decisions undertaken in 2025, including the suspension of many humanitarian programs and a decline in the issuance of temporary visas, both of which reduced avenues for lawful entry.
Brookings researchers also point to proposed funding in President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act as likely to further expand enforcement capacities, potentially increasing removals in 2026.
Economic Consequences of Negative Migration
The shift toward negative net migration has ripple effects across the economy. According to the Brookings analysis:
- Labor Force Growth — Reduced immigration slows growth in the labor force, a key driver of job creation and employment expansion.
- Consumer Spending — The report projects that weaker migration will reduce consumer spending by between $60 billion and $110 billion over 2025 and 2026.
- GDP Impact — With fewer new workers and consumers, potential gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to weaken relative to previous years.
Researchers warned that these trends may contribute to “unexpectedly weak economic activity” in sectors that disproportionately serve immigrant communities, including hospitality, construction, and service industries.
Looking Ahead: 2026 Projections
While the exact net migration figure for 2026 remains uncertain, the Brookings authors suggest the United States is on track to experience continued low or negative net migration in the coming year. Ongoing policy choices and enforcement actions are likely to shape these outcomes.
Why It Matters
Net migration has long been a significant contributor to U.S. population growth, economic dynamism, and labor market expansion. A sustained shift toward negative migration — the first in more than half a century — represents a notable departure from recent demographic trends and poses new questions for policymakers, employers, and communities nationwide.
