Betting odds that President Donald Trump will be impeached during his second term reached record highs on Monday, reflecting heightened political tension as Congr ess and the public monitor his actions. In Kalshi’s market, the odds hit 61 percent, an all-time high, while Polymarket suggested a much lower likelihood of impeachment, only 14 percent.
Democratic critics have repeatedly called for Trump’s impeachment since his return to office in 2025, citing concerns over his foreign policy, including the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and inflammatory remarks to Congress. Critics have pointed to Trump’s accusation that some lawmakers engaged in “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH” as evidence of abuse of presidential power.
The President of the United States of America just called for the death of Democratic lawmakers.
— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) November 20, 2025
This man is sick in the head. https://t.co/HNCzuPZJGG pic.twitter.com/6iQr07umSi
Impeachment in the United States requires a majority vote in the House of Representatives, a hurdle made more challenging by the current Republican-controlled chamber. Any conviction in the Senate would then require two-thirds of senators to agree, making successful impeachment even less likely without bipartisan support.
Some Republican lawmakers have indicated conditions under which they might support impeachment. Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska said, “If he went through with the threats, I think it would be the end of his presidency. And he needs to know: The off-ramp is realizing Republicans aren’t going to tolerate this, and he’s going to have to back off. He hates being told no, but in this case, I think Republicans need to be firm.” Bacon specifically referenced Trump’s threats regarding Greenland.
GOP Rep Don Bacon: "On the weird chance that Trump is serious about invading Greenland, I want to let him know it will probably be the end of his presidency."
— The Shallow State (@OurShallowState) January 16, 2026
The House has previously rejected an impeachment resolution against Trump in December 2025, focused on his remarks about military members and alleged sedition. Nearly two dozen Democrats voted against that measure, illustrating the complexity of garnering sufficient support even within the opposition party.
Observers and commentators have weighed in on the significance of impeachment odds and political sentiment. Policy consultant Adam Cochran wrote on X, “Having to impeach someone 3 times, is truly more a rebuke of the voter than it is of Trump. Impeach once, he failed. Impeach twice, Congress failed. Impeached a third time, the voter failed.”
Having to impeach someone 3 times, is truly more a rebuke of the voter than it is of Trump.
— Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) (@adamscochran) January 19, 2026
Impeach once, he failed.
Impeach twice, Congress failed.
Impeached a third time, the voter failed. https://t.co/0dfTyKeSnG
While impeachment discussions are heating up, any action is unlikely to take place before the November midterm elections. Whether Democrats will pursue impeachment if they regain a House majority remains uncertain, leaving the possibility of impeachment largely contingent on the results of the upcoming elections and Trump’s ongoing actions in office.
