The United States may seek to pressure Iran through a naval blockade rather than an immediate military strike, according to an assessment published by The Jerusalem Post citing Israeli security experts. The analysis comes as President Donald Trump said a “massive” U.S. armada is moving toward Iran, though he stressed he hoped it would not be used.
According to The Jerusalem Post, Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said the American military buildup in the Gulf region provides Washington with operational flexibility that does not necessarily imply an imminent kinetic attack. Instead, he said, the U.S. could move toward imposing a blockade on Iran, while keeping “all options on the table.”
The paper reported that Citrinowicz noted Israel has allowed Washington to take the lead on any potential action against Iran, as it is “preferable for the United States to do the job.” However, he added that the U.S. strategic objective remains unclear amid what he described as daily contradictions in President Trump’s public messaging.
In a separate interview cited by The Jerusalem Post, former Israeli national security adviser Dr. Eyal Hulata echoed the assessment, saying the current situation does not point to an imminent large-scale war despite the recent concentration of American forces in the region. Hulata said it is possible that sustained pressure could eventually bring Iranian leaders back to the negotiating table, arguing that Trump is not interested in a broad military campaign against Iran.
Both experts told the paper that an Iranian response targeting Israel is not inevitable if the United States attacks the regime. Citrinowicz said that if Tehran believes any American strike is symbolic, it may refrain from retaliating against Israel. However, he warned that if Iran concludes the goal is regime change, it could strike Israel in an effort to halt further attacks.
Hulata added that an Iranian attack on Israel would be a strategic mistake, saying Israel would respond by targeting vital and costly infrastructure important to both the regime and the Iranian economy. Still, he argued that Israel should avoid intervening directly unless it has no alternative, noting that Israel lacks the ability to reignite unrest inside Iran through military action alone.
Hulata also said Iran may attempt to prolong the crisis, viewing success as the withdrawal of U.S. forces without an attack. He urged the Israeli public to rely on Home Front Command guidance in the event of escalation, saying security authorities would avoid unnecessary risks and focus on ensuring civilians remain in protected areas.
The expert assessments follow remarks by President Trump, who told reporters aboard Air Force One that the United States has a large naval force moving toward Iran. “We have a lot of ships going that direction just in case. We have a big flotilla going in that direction,” Trump said. “Maybe we won’t have to use it. We’ll see what happens.”
Trump says US has an “armada” headed toward Iran https://t.co/GxXbl3YhFw pic.twitter.com/o9grDcL3uY
— New York Post (@nypost) January 23, 2026
Trump also said he remained open to negotiations with Tehran, even as he accused Iran’s leadership of using extreme violence against protesters and called for new leadership in the country.
Together, the expert analysis and Trump’s comments suggest Washington is attempting to balance military pressure with diplomatic leverage, while keeping multiple options available as tensions with Iran continue to rise.
