Just one day after the reported capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3, 2026, new intelligence reports emerged indicating that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has prepared a contingency plan to flee to Moscow amid escalating nationwide protests.
Reported Escape Plan for Khamenei
Iran’s Supreme Leader, 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has reportedly developed a “Plan B” to escape Tehran with up to 20 close associates, including family members and aides such as his son and nominated heir apparent, Mojtaba. The plan would involve transferring his vast asset network, estimated at around $95 billion based on a 2013 Reuters investigation, including holdings through the powerful Setad organization and semi-state charitable foundations.
According to intelligence sources cited in a British report, the escape route leads to Moscow, as Khamenei admires Russian President Vladimir Putin and views Iranian culture as similar to Russian culture. Former Israeli intelligence official Beni Sabti noted that Russia is the only viable destination, stating there is “no other place for him.”
The plan is said to activate if security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Basij militia, police, and army, fail to quell unrest, desert, or refuse orders. A Western intelligence psychological profile describes Khamenei as paranoid and obsessed with survival, noting he has appeared weaker mentally and physically since last year’s 12-day war with Israel, with limited public appearances during the current protests.
Parallels to Bashar al-Assad’s Escape
The contingency mirrors the flight of former Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, who fled Damascus to Moscow in late 2024 as his regime collapsed. Assad is now reportedly living in luxury in Russia, studying the language and pursuing his passion for ophthalmology.
Ongoing Protests in Iran
Nationwide demonstrations, triggered by economic hardships such as record inflation and deteriorating living conditions, have spread across cities including Tehran and the holy city of Qom. Protesters have accused security forces of using live ammunition, tear gas, and water cannons for suppression.
U.S. Response and the Maduro Context
As protests intensify, the U.S. continues its maximum pressure campaign on Iran. Following the January 3, 2026, capture of Maduro, the U.S. State Department’s Farsi account posted an image of President Donald Trump with the message: “President Trump is a man of action. If you didn’t know, now you know.”
Trump, speaking aboard Air Force One on January 5, warned that if Iranian authorities “kill people, as they have done in the past, they will be hit hard by the United States.”
Reports from The Jerusalem Post indicate that the Maduro operation has prompted discussions in Washington and Israel about potential interventions to support Iranian protesters, including limited use of force to prevent regime crackdowns and give the movement a chance to grow. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Benny Gantz, have held security meetings and expressed support for concrete actions to aid protesters.
While protests alone may not suffice for regime change, the swift U.S. action in Venezuela has shifted calculations, with indications that targeted assistance short of a full invasion could now be viable. No final decisions have been reported as the U.S. manages the Venezuela aftermath.
