Military settlements in Russia’s Far North have experienced 20-30% population decline since 2022, according to the independent Khroniki news agency. The decline is 2-3 times worse than the surrounding civilian population drop and threatens Moscow’s ability to maintain a strategic presence in the Arctic.
The Scale of the Problem
Nine closed military cities including Severomorsk and Polyarny have seen dramatic population losses. These settlements house Russia’s Northern Fleet, which operates the country’s ballistic missile submarines from bases near the Norwegian border.
The broader Murmansk oblast declined approximately 10% overall during the same period, meaning military settlements are hemorrhaging residents at more than double the regional rate. The region’s population has nearly halved over the last three decades, dropping from nearly 1.2 million inhabitants in 1990 to around 651,000 by early 2025.
Why People Are Leaving
Military personnel are being sent to fight in Ukraine and not returning due to combat deaths or opportunities elsewhere. Russian military courts in the Kola Peninsula have filed 76 cases against men refusing to sign contracts with the Armed Forces since the start of the full-scale invasion, a number 7.5 times higher than before the war.
Meanwhile, Moscow has cut infrastructure projects in the region to fund the war, despite Putin expressing concern about maintaining Russian presence for the Northern Sea Route and Arctic power projection.
Infrastructure Collapse
Two-thirds of the 1,800 settlements in the Russian North lack rail or highway connections, making resupply difficult and expensive. Supplying them by sea has encountered problems, and air cargo costs are often prohibitive.
Living conditions in military towns remain poor. In Sputnik, home base for Russia’s 61st Naval Infantry Brigade, residents complain about insufficient heating, no water pressure, sewage backing up into apartments, and mold on the walls. “With this kind of water, it is not clear if you clean or dirty yourself,” one resident wrote on social media.
Moscow’s Response
The government is expanding unmanned weather and communication stations along the Northern Sea Route to reduce personnel needs. But this doesn’t solve the fundamental problem of depopulation in military settlements critical to Russia’s Arctic strategy.
Putin said on October 25, 2023 that Russia must maintain its presence in the North for the Northern Sea Route and Arctic power projection. But the gap between rhetoric and reality continues to widen.
The Broader Demographic Crisis
The Russian Far North has been losing population since the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, when the “long ruble” salary incentives became less common and less generous. The region’s population decline has accelerated dramatically since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Regional authorities in 2019 presented plans to boost the population, with Acting Deputy Governor Maria Derunova saying “we need 200,000 newcomers to compensate for the natural population decline in the region over the coming decade.” Since then, the decline has only accelerated.
Only military towns saw population growth in recent years, with Severomorsk and other Northern Fleet bases gaining residents even as civilian municipalities shrank. But that trend has now reversed, leaving the entire region in demographic freefall.
Strategic Implications
The population collapse threatens Russia’s ability to maintain its Arctic military infrastructure. The Northern Fleet faces a widening gap between ambitions and resources, according to the Norwegian Intelligence Service, forcing commanders to choose between solving missions and performing necessary maintenance.
The demographic crisis in Russia’s Far North military settlements represents a slow-motion strategic defeat—one that no amount of rhetoric or unmanned stations can reverse.
